Category Archive: 5.) Japan

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Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

2019-08-29

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2019-08-29

Japan JGB, Jan 2014 - Jul 2019
After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s economy is concerned.

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BoJ stays put amid economic headwinds

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

Growth in Japanese Exports and ISM Business New Orders Index, 2011-2019
Japan's central bank has little room for further easing despite a downbeat outlook.At its monetary policy meeting on 30 July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The decision came as the Japanese economy faces strong external headwinds and a downbeat outlook for domestic demand.

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Weakening Japanese momentum behind strong GDP figures

2019-05-23

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2019-05-23

Growth in Japanese Real GDP, 2012-2019
Japan’s latest GDP report reveals some notable weakness in the economy despite the strong headline figures.The preliminary reading of Japanese GDP for Q1 shows that the economy grew by 2.1% q-o-q annualised, beating the consensus forecast of -0.2%.However, behind the strong headline figures, details of the GDP report reveal some broad-based weakening in momentum.Declining corporate capex and sluggish household consumption both drag on domestic...

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Insight Japan

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Japan CPI Food, Jan 2013 - 2019
As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, more so economy, the predictable cost.

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Economics Is Easy When You Don’t Have To Try

2018-12-11

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2018-12-11

Japan GDP, Quantitative and Qualitative Easing, Jan 2008 - Mar 2018
The real question is why no one says anything. They can continue to make these grossly untrue, often contradictory statements without fear of having to explain themselves. Don’t even think about repercussions. Even in front of politicians ostensibly being there on behalf of the public, pedigree still matters more than results.

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Japan services PMI rebounds strongly in October

2018-11-08

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2018-11-08

The domestic economy is retaining its momentum, but external headwinds are building.The Japanese services purchasing managers index (PMI) rose sharply in October, surging by 2.2 points to 52.4, after a notable drop in September. The manufacturing PMI rose as well, but more moderately, reaching 52.9 in October from 52.4 in September.

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And Now For Something Completely Different

2018-05-20

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2018-05-20

Japan Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 2008 - 2018
Back in February, Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that Real GDP in Japan had grown in Q4 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. It was the longest streak of non-negative GDP since the 1980’s. Predictably, this was hailed as some significant achievement, a true masterstroke of courage and perseverance. It was taken as a sign that Abenomics and QQE was finally working (never mind the four years).

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Transitory’s Japanese Cousin

2018-05-01

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2018-05-01

Inflation in Japan, Jan 2011 - Apr 2018
Thomas Hoenig was President of the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch for two decades. He left that post in 2011 to become Vice Chairman of the FDIC. Before that, Mr. Hoenig as a voting member of the FOMC in 2010 cast the lone dissenting vote in each of the eight policy meetings that year (meaning he was against QE2, too). This makes him, apparently, the hawk of all hawks.

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The Science of Japanification

2018-04-28

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2018-04-28

Rational Expectations Science of Monetary Policy
The term itself gives it away. They called it quantitative easing for a specific reason. Both words mean to convey substantial concepts. The first part, quantitative, was used because it sounds deliberate, even scientific. It implies a program where great care and study was employed to come up with the exact right amount. It’s downright formulaic, where you intend that by doing X you can predictably create Y.

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The Best ‘Reflation’ Indicator May Be Japanese

2018-04-04

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2018-04-04

Japan Industrial Production, Jan 2008 - 2018
Japanese industrial production dropped sharply in January 2018, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry reported last month. Seasonally-adjusted, the IP index fell 6.8% month-over-month from December 2017. Since the country has very little mining sector to speak of, and Japan’s IP doesn’t include utility output, this was entirely manufacturing in nature (99.79% of the IP index is derived from the manufacturing sector).

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Strong growth and Abenomics mean Japanese equities continue to provide opportunities

2018-02-01

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2018-02-01

Japanese growth momentum is at its strongest in over a decade, with the quarterly Tankan survey of business conditions and sentiment strengthening to an 11 - year high in Q4 2017. The economy may have expanded by 1.8% in 2017, up from 0.9% in the previous year. In 2018, the growth rate may moderate slightly to 1.3%, but should remain well above Japan’s potential growth, which currently stands at 0.85%, according to the Bank of Japan (BoJ, see...

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The BoJ is sticking to monetary easing

2017-12-30

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2017-12-30

YoY Changes in headline and Core CPI in Japan
The BoJ remains the last major central bank still firmly committed to large-scale monetary easing.After its Monetary Policy Meeting of December 21, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its intention to keep its current monetary easing programme intact. The BOJ will continue with its “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control ”, aiming to achieve and overshoot the core inflation target of 2%.

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Japan Is Booming, Except It’s Not

2017-10-29

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2017-10-29

Japan Household Spending, May 2012 - Aug 2017
Japan is hot, really hot. Stocks are up to level not seen since 1996 (Nikkei 225). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called snap elections in Parliament to secure a supermajority and it worked. Things seem to be sparkling all over the place, with the arrow pointing up: “Hopes for a global economic recovery and US shares’ strength are making fund managers generous on Japanese stocks,” said Chihiro Ohta, general manager of investment research at SMBC Nikko...

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Abe and BOJ

2017-09-24

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2017-09-24

BOJ is unlikely to change policy. A snap election suggests continuity of policy. US 10-year yield remains one of most important drivers of the exchange rate.

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Frisky Yen Upsets Japan’s GOSPLAN

2016-04-06

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2016-04-06

  It Wasn’t Supposed to Do That… When you’re a central banker in a pure fiat money system and even your ability to print your own currency into oblivion is questioned by the markets, you really have a problem. This is actually funny on quite a number...

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Abenomics Succeeding? Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media, Just Energy and Import Prices Are Higher

2013-07-26

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2013-07-26

CPI Details Japan 2011-2013
  While the FT says: Abenomics is succeeding in bringing inflation back to Japan. The preferred core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food prices, rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.4 per cent in June (year-over-year), the highest reading since November 2008 and the first positive reading since April 2012. (The reading was flat in May). Overall inflation …

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Has Abenomics Failed? Let us Go for Exchange Rate Targeting and Maintain Stability

2013-06-13

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2013-06-13

Abenomics has failed It was doomed from the very beginning. You cannot create out of risk-averse Japanese risk-tolerating Americans. Public Japanese opinion puts enormous pressure on BoJ policy and on the government; the risks of rising  JGB yields are too high. Japanese hate volatility, the government cannot risk its funding. The emphasis on the word …

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Abenomics: A USD/JPY Trade the Smart Money Banks on

2013-06-08

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2013-06-08

Hedge funds worldwide have been counting on a rise and subsequent fall in USDJPY, and conditions remain intact for that to happen, though not to the extremes that many once expected.

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Abenomics: Japanese Economy Would Have Recovered Even Without it

2013-05-25

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2013-05-25

Response to Prof. Nick Rowe, Carleton University, Canada and Lars Christensen, the leading “Market Monetarist“.   Nick Rowe: Is the Bank of Japan trying to push down bond yields? Well, yes and no. Yes, it is fighting a battle to push down bond yields, but that battle is part of a wider war for economic recovery. And …

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Japanese Investors Will Determine Fate of USD/JPY not U.S. Hedge Funds

2013-04-12

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2013-04-12

asset categories japan, us equity securities currency deposits
By Stephen Jen (via Itau Global Connections). Bottom line Now that the Bank of Japan will be led by a team of super-doves, the mechanism through which a more aggressive BOJ could influence the yen is through capital flows. We have used the analogy of a two-stage rocket to describe how USDJPY could be propelled. … Continue reading »

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